Fueled by legitimate frustrations over insecurity and poverty, the leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, grouped within the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), find themselves at a critical turning point. The region, although rich in natural resources such as gold, uranium and oil, and endowed with undeniable human potential, is currently in the grip of a profound economic crisis. However, this context is exacerbated by the rise of populism, where the authorities, by opting for sweeping promises and inflammatory statements, choose brutality rather than engaging in structural reforms and coherent development policies.
The simplistic speeches and erratic strategies of Sahelian leaders are already proving disastrous. By repeatedly breaking with their historical partners, such as withdrawing from ECOWAS or rejecting financial institutions, the AES states have brought about their own economic suffocation. In 2022, Burkina Faso recorded a 15% fall in exports following diplomatic tensions, while Mali saw its foreign direct investment drop by 20%, leading to a 3% contraction in its GDP. Growing insecurity is further compounding this situation. According to the African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism, the number of jihadist attacks increased by 20% in 2022, paralysing commercial activities and reducing investor confidence. And according to the latest Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel region remains the epicentre of terrorism for the second consecutive year, accounting for more than half of all deaths caused by this form of violence worldwide in 2024.
In contrast to this stagnation in the Sahel, neighbouring African countries offer a successful alternative, based on stability, openness and reform. Mauritania, far from sensationalist statements and reckless decisions, is building its economic development on solid foundations. Its gas partnership with Senegal on the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim project offers promising prospects, attracting investors and strengthening regional cooperation. Similarly, Benin is establishing itself as a key player in regional industrialisation, relying on economic diversification and stable governance to accelerate its development. With a 40% increase in investment in the textile sector over five years, it is becoming a regional hub for cotton processing. By modernising its agriculture and strengthening its infrastructure, it is attracting capital and securing its economic future. Both countries, facing challenges similar to those in the Sahel, demonstrate how enlightened, development-oriented governance can lead to tangible results.
However, history is not predetermined. The Sahel still has the opportunity to reverse the trend, but to do so, it will need to break away from isolationist policies, restore investor confidence and build an economy based on respect for contracts, competitiveness and innovation. Institutional stability and regional integration are the only levers capable of putting the AES countries back on the path to prosperity. Without rapid awareness and concrete action, the Sahel will continue to sink into a crisis whose effects will be as lasting as they are dramatic. True strength lies not in populist speeches, but in thoughtful actions and strategic alliances.
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