There has been no majority in the National Assembly since June 2022. Emmanuel Macron had two options to deal with the situation: dissolve it (the solution in keeping with the spirit of the institutions) or forge a governing pact with the opposition.
He chose neither of these two sensible options. The first out of fear of a period of cohabitation that his predecessors nevertheless accepted. The second because he hoped, through individual poaching, to blow up the right without having to negotiate. In vain...
A free preliminary warning was the motion for rejection adopted on the immigration bill on December 12th.
The Attal government changes the game, but probably not in the way desired by the President of the Republic. The semblance of balance, which shows little respect for the French vote, is even more threatened.
Indeed, the entry of Rachida Dati (and Catherine Vautrin) into the government, a «political coup» of the kind so favoured by Nicolas Sarkozy and Emmanuel Macron, will not shift a single vote in the National Assembly or the Senate. The pact between Emmanuel Macron and the former President has long been known; the two new arrivals merely seal it.
On the other hand, there is one red chiffon for the’left wing of the Macron movement, the newly government's already shrivelled output. A more serious rebellion than the one in December is likely.
This entry into the government of two hardcore Sarkozysts cannot fail to be poorly received at the MoDem, as everyone knows the state of relations between François Bayrou and Nicolas Sarkozy. Yet, without the MoDem, the majority is no longer even «relative» (a far-fetched expression under the Fifth Republic) but quite simply non-existent.
As for the barons of the Macron sphere, everyone knows they were hardly thrilled to find themselves overtaken by a «young man». A stroke of Jarnac cannot be ruled out.
Finally, what reason could now compel «Les Républicains» not to vote for a motion of no confidence? The right wing came out somewhat reinvigorated from the tragi-comic episode that occurred during the vote on the immigration bill. Emmanuel Macron's contempt for them, as well as his faltering popularity, could convince the LR MPs that returning to the polls is not as risky as initially envisaged. Failing that, they run the risk of being seen as stooges and would open an even wider path for Marine Le Pen. The latter could then claim (along with the late NUPES) the title of sole opposition to Macronism.
We must wish the best of luck to the leader of the «relative» majority, Gabriel Attal, and to those tasked with coordinating the Macronist groups and ensuring a form of coherence in the National Assembly. The mission is near-impossible; its failure would force the President of the Republic to (finally) dissolve the National Assembly.
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