The American threat and the European awakening
It all starts on 4 January. Donald Trump asserts that the United States needs Greenland for national security reasons. He revives ambitions for this autonomous Danish territory that have already been expressed on several occasions. Greenland is strategic both militarily and for its natural resources. The European reaction is immediate and unusually unanimous. As early as 6 January, seven heads of state and government, including France, the United Kingdom and Denmark, issue a joint statement asserting that Greenland belongs to its people. Only Denmark and Greenland can decide its future. The crisis reaches a turning point when White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt confirms that several options are being studied to acquire the island. Use of the military is a possibility. A statement that turns a diplomatic dispute into an open confrontation between NATO allies.
Military escalation and trade war
This announcement triggered a reciprocal deployment unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. Denmark announced a reinforcement of its presence in Greenland. Emmanuel Macron made it known that France would send land, air and maritime assets there in the following days. This decision was quickly imitated by Germany, Norway and Sweden. Washington responded with economic pressure: Donald Trump threatened to impose, as of 1 February, additional customs duties. The latter would be of 10 % on the exports of eight countries if no agreement was found on the purchase of Greenland. This threat was described as ’unacceptable« by Macron, and pushed the European Parliament to freeze the ratification of the trade agreement concluded with Washington in 2024. On 21 January, a diplomatic compromise finally emerged. Trump claimed to have laid, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the framework for a future agreement. He put an end to the most spectacular escalation ever observed between two members of the Atlantic Alliance.
The discreet locking of ores and bases
The outlines of this agreement reveal a strategic intention that is far more precise than simple rhetorical appeasement. The arrangement would involve facilitated access for the United States to certain parts of Greenlandic territory and direct involvement in the island's mining rights. It also entails an indefinite agreement, drawing upon the 1951 US-Danish defence treaty. This text already grants Washington exceptional operational autonomy at its bases. The Pituffik Space Base, formerly Thule Air Base, is the most visible embodiment of this. It constitutes a key link in the future US anti-missile shield, the «Golden Dome». In June 2025, its command was transferred from the European Command to the US Northern Command. On the mining front, the stakes are considerable: 24 of the 34 critical raw materials listed by the European Union are present on the island, even though only two mines are currently in operation. There are 135 permits held by over sixty companies.
The European response and the multi-speed new West
It is precisely this untapped deposit that Brussels is now seeking to secure in the face of Washington. Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Nuuk at the beginning of September to consolidate a European Arctic partnership, with an additional funding package of around 200 million euros mentioned for 2026-2027. A visit scheduled at the very same time as the NATO Arctic Shield 2026 exercise, which brought together approximately 400 military personnel from ten allied countries in southern Greenland from 7 to 18 September. Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen was careful to put an end to speculation regarding EU membership or a merger with the United States. He preferred to deepen a long-standing partnership centred on critical minerals and renewable energy. This sequence of events has also had a knock-on effect far beyond Europe. Indeed, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is now calling for a historic tightening of ties between Ottawa and the European Union, arguing that a shifting geopolitical order is pushing Western middle powers to band together in the face of American uncertainty.
Accelerated rearmament, at what cost?
The outcome of this sequence is therefore ambivalent. European Union defence spending increased by 60 % between 2020 and 2025. A movement initiated by the Russo-Ukrainian war, but which American pressure on Greenland dramatically accelerated. The paradox is striking since it is an ally, and not a declared adversary, that contributed most in 2026 to convincing European capitals of the fragility of their strategic dependence. But this surge in autonomy comes at a cost: Europe must finance this unprecedented effort against a backdrop of internal budgetary tensions, illustrated by the 54 billion euro austerity plan announced in France for 2027. Arctic researchers remind us that Washington's repeated allusions to Greenland, month after month, show that American interest in the island is by no means a passing episode. The game, far from being over, is undoubtedly only just beginning.
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