Bayrou signals the political end of a dying Macronism

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François Bayrou's refusal to join the government, but even more so the substantive disagreements he highlighted (and which are relevant), have just brought a terrible blow to the already struggling Macron camp and to a government that cannot be found.

Indeed, one can level a number of criticisms at François Bayrou, but not that of mediocrity. Here is unquestionably a man above the fray who has a true political vision. A man who was a kingmaker in 2012 and 2017, even if the kings in question turned out to be rather petty monarchs.

Will this profound disagreement take the form of opposition to the Attal government in the National Assembly? Not necessarily, because the Attal government is already doomed. Two Councils of Ministers cancelled by the President of the Republic for personal convenience, unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. A reshuffle that is still not complete, a month after Elisabeth Borne's departure. Ministers who are nowhere to be found, Macronism is gradually being deprived of talent. A guardianship over the parliamentary majority by the MoDem has already been decided. Nothing, strictly nothing will be able to be done without them.

Emmanuel Macron loses a major ally but this it is primarily Édouard Philippe and to a lesser extent Gabriel Attal who are directly threatened in their presidential ambitions. François Bayrou is keeping his distance at the right moment, which neither the one nor the other has done with regard to the Macron camp. Yet, everyone knows full well that being associated with it will be a deal-breaker in 2027. Edouard Philippe by choice, difficult to understand, never made his break with the President beyond a few skirmishes invisible to the general public. Gabriel Attal, for his part, naturally cannot do it, but he has all the time in the world.

To sum up, a president who cannot stand for re-election and is already struggling for authority over his non-existent «majority» finds himself deprived of his strongest support. The death throes of Macronism have begun. It is far from certain that the President can avoid dissolving the National Assembly and entering into a period of cohabitation with the RN. A political conclusion that is, to say the least, calamitous.