Erwan DAVOUX served as a policy advisor at the Presidency of the French Republic and has advised numerous right-wing political figures internationally.
The presidential election will take place in 4 days in Senegal. The PDS (the party of former president Abdoulaye Wade, which now supports his son Karim Wade) could be the kingmaker.
The Senegalese presidential election will take place on Sunday 24 March. So decided the Constitutional Council. It will therefore take place without two heavyweights, Karim Wade (PDS) and Ousmane Sonko, leader of Pastef, whose candidacies were not validated by this body.
The equation is complex. The chances of Amadou Ba, expected to represent the outgoing president's camp, are relatively slim. But they would have been non-existent if the election had been postponed. Some see his hand behind all the Constitutional Council's decisions not to postpone the election. Indeed, the presence of the two barred heavyweights would have deprived him of any room for manoeuvre. Amadou Ba has a reputation for being a good administrator; he has served as Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Prime Minister. He knows the inner workings of the state inside out and is well-liked abroad. But these undisputed strengths could also turn out to be weaknesses.
Indeed, the people of Senegal want a clean break. Of a sort of second independence considered to be real as opposed to the current one considered to be formal. The debate on the CFA franc with Pastef's back-and-forth on the subject bears witness to this. The mindset of the population is rather anti-French, as in the Sahel states. France bears a heavy responsibility for this situation. The stench of Françafrique, embodied by certain local French business leaders who act like potentates and sow detestation through their neo-colonialism, combined with the lack of a clear diplomatic line, means France has done nothing effective to halt what could be very difficult days ahead for it in Senegal. It is a seismic event because the country carries significant weight in French diplomacy. France, in Senegal as elsewhere, was too slow to react to this situation, which it clearly underestimated. It also allowed fake news to develop, which is now part of the collective sentiment. A loss of influence in Senegal would simply mean that France under the mandates of François Hollande was driven out of Africa. Only Alassane Ouattara’s Côte d’Ivoire would remain.
This context undeniably favours Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is riding this populist wave with skill and, from now on, the assistance of Ousmane Sonko, the true leader whose release is recent. Their sympathies lie more spontaneously with Russia than with France.
In this context, Amadou Ba is fighting for a run-off and can now count on the support of the presidential camp, of APR after a few periods of tension. But this risks not being enough. The choice made by the PDS to actively support him or to support Idrissa Seck (former Prime Minister who at one time was very close to President Abdoulaye Wade) or, finally, to call for abstention it's hard to see him taking a stand for Pastef will be of the utmost importance.
This election carries dangeras the frontrunner, who is unquestionably Bassirou Diomaye Faye, is the number two of a political party, with no experience of power. What would his relationship with Ousmane Sonko be if he were to be elected? Would the bond between the two men withstand the harsh laws known to political life? What will be the attitude of Karim Wade and the PDS? Is there not a risk of disillusionment and rapid disappointment following the promises of a clean break? All the more so as Overall, Macky Sall's record over his two terms is positive even if the population hasn't necessarily felt it that way. The Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) has experienced delays, but it remains an achievable and realistic goal, unlike in other African countries where emergence is merely a slogan. President Macky Sall, like his illustrious predecessors, has flown the flag of Senegalese diplomacy high on the international stage.
Postponing the election by a few weeks or months would have allowed for a peaceful and undisputed election with all the protagonists. That was the option advocated by President Macky Sall, but it ran up against the political calculations of various parties.
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