MUSELIER AND VASSAL: THE SARKOZYS WHO BECAME MACRONISTS
They do not like each other, but they pretended to be united so as not to disappear. Martine Vassal and Renaud Muselier each sought, in an alternative and competitive manner, to take the leadership of the right in the post-Gaudin era. Despite a forced union during the last municipal elections, the Sarkozyste duo failed.
The first, already defeated in the 2020 municipal elections, never managed to position herself clearly on the Gaudin legacy, oscillating between continuity and repudiation. The result was a backroom mess that led her to lose on both fronts.
The second one, distanced at the 1er missed by Thierry Mariani (RN) during the 2020 regional elections, only managed to keep the Region thanks to a «Republican front» that was still alive at that time.
Once these warnings had passed, Muselier and Vassal alike, realising that Macron's re-election in 2022 was inevitable, unhesitatingly turned their coats. Not having to face headwinds and trying to capitalise on the presidential momentum: that is what their strategy was reduced to.
Renaud Muselier takes the plunge as part of a rallying of three major barons of the PACA region (Muselier, Falco, Estrosi) to Macron (despite the very right-wing DNA of the latter two).
He did things on a grand scale, joining «Renaissance» (unlike Christian Estrosi or Hubert Falco), and became its leader in the Bouches-du-Rhône department. He belonged to the party's strategic campaign committee, taking part in Emmanuel Macron's close campaign staff during the 2022 presidential election. His associate, Romain Simmarano, is a member of the Renaissance departmental board.
Vassal, for her part, used the Russia-Ukraine war as a pretext to drop «her friend» Valérie Pécresse[1] even while she was heading the LR federation of the Bouches-du-Rhône. Without joining the Macronist party, for all that. Once again, by staying in the middle of the ford for lack of a course or convictions, Martine Vassal was losing on both counts. «Traitor» to the right, «not one of us» to Renaissance, according to a departmental councillor who has continually denounced, behind the scenes, Martine Vassal's drift to the right.
WITH MACRON, IT’S A LOVE-HATE RELATIONSHIP
Unfortunately for Martine Vassal and Renaud Muselier, Emmanuel Macron will not reward the two political turncoats[2].
For the first one, it was, in reality, harder not to enter the government than to enter it. Indeed, a woman heading two major institutions, whilst no personality from the Bouches-du-Rhône (3th Department of France) was expected: the matter seemed sewn up. But Martine Vassal's ministerial hopes evaporated despite the support of her friends at the newspaper «La Tribune»[3] who did so much to promote her: «Vassal, future minister?»
The re-elected President would have none of it, considering that she was not up to standard. The rest of the story proved him right.
The person concerned will then be forced to reaffirm several times, to wash away the insult, her «choice» to devote herself solely to her local mandates. She was, in reality, outflanked by Sabrina Agresti-Roubache.
As for Renaud Muselier, Emmanuel Macron considered (as with Christian Estrosi) that he was rather coming to the end of the road and that he no longer had much to offer him. Ministerial dreams vanished.
THE LOCAL ELECTIONS, A BAD TIME TO GET THROUGH?
It was against this unpropitious backdrop that the municipal elections loomed, a major milestone for both of them.
Renaud Muselier has always dreamed of being Mayor of Marseille and for a time believed himself to be Jean-Claude Gaudin's natural successor. Nevertheless, a clear-eyed assessment of the electoral balance of power forced him to give up his municipal dream two years before the election.
Martine Vassal, for her part, is forced to stand as a candidate, barring any immediate renunciation of the presidency of the Metropolis.[4] As her political identity becomes increasingly blurred due to her constant zigzags, she cannot afford to bypass the municipal elections.
With the ’centre ground« constantly shrinking in the country and particularly in Marseille, caught in a vice between the far right and the far left, yesterday's rivals are reconciling. Renaud Muselier is resigning himself to supporting Martine Vassal in an attempt to »salvage what he can«. Even Bruno Gilles, who had broken away for the 2020 municipal elections, is jumping on this bandwagon.
A campaign that goes from the frying pan into the fire
It is accepted very quickly that Martine Vassal is not in a position to win the Town Hall, the real objective being to save the Metropolis. But the campaign is calamitous; made up of promises, each more unrealistic than the last.[5], of dubious statements or gaffes[6], every time she speaks it is counter-productive. Why would she do tomorrow what she has had every opportunity to do yesterday? She is cruelly lacking in credibility. This campaign is revealing to the wider public in Marseille that the woman who has led the Metropolis for 8 years and the Department for 10 years is not, in reality, up to the job.
His entourage is scarcely any better. Romain Simaranno will try to pull off a stroke of luck. «In the kingdom of the blind, are not the one-eyed kings?« Like Martine Vassal, he will benefit from practically self-service access to «La Provence» and «BFM TV». And from the more discreet support of other local media. But it was all to no avail.
An honourable defeat, with 25%, soon appeared to be out of reach, despite the numerous favourable opinion polls commissioned by… «Martine Vassal’s Friends». Nevertheless, Renaud Muselier played his part to the full. He did not settle for lip service, as some had predicted. A former right-wing elected representative remained convinced that «on the evening of the first round, Renaud would force Martine to withdraw in order to block the RN». Nothing of the sort happened.
AFTER THE ROUT, WHAT PROSPECTS? THE SENATE, A GILDED EXILE
Muselier was the first to draw the consequences of the vote. Victory in the 2028 regional elections seemed out of reach. The Senate was becoming a more than honourable refuge. Very quickly, the president of the region announced his intention to lead a list in the senatorial elections of 27 September 2026, catching everyone, including his staff and supporters, unawares. But he confused speed with haste. The reason given by the individual concerned—to take a decisive place in the presidential campaign and block the far right—was enough to make one smile. It is a bit thick. The Senate does not sit during the campaign, and the clout of a regional president is far more decisive.
Renaud Muselier dreamed of repeating his feat from the 2020 regional elections, by which he had pulled the wool over the eyes of his friend Christian Jacob, then at the head of LR: obtaining the nomination of that party and at the same time that of the presidential camp. But times have changed. Sabrina Agresti-Roubache (her again!) put an end to this sweet dream. It is she who will lead the presidential camp's list.
As for LR, it is hard to see why B. Retailleau would invest a Macronist. Valérie Boyer is fully legitimate to lead this list.
Martine Vassal also dreamed of the Senate in the event that she failed to keep the Metropolis. She will not hesitate to spend €900 million through the Departmental Council on capital grants for small communes between 2018 and 2023.[7]. Right where the electoral college for the Senate is located. But the tragicomic end of her campaign dashed any hope she had. The challenge for her from now on is to keep hold of the Department until 2028, without being ousted internally.
TWO OTHER MAJOR LOSERS
Following this election, two major losers were left by the wayside: Catherine Pila, close to B. Retailleau after having been close to X. Bertrand, and Laure-Agnès Caradec. The former, a seasoned multiple-office holder – primary school headteacher in her professional life, city councillor (leader of the «Une volonté pour Marseille» group), Vice-President of the Metropolis and chair of the RTM [Marseille transport authority] – found herself stripped of everything. Except, naturally, her job in national education. Everyone will be able to judge her record at the head of the RTM for themselves….
Laure-Agn-Agns Caradec, vice-prsidente du Dpartement des Bouches-du-Rhne, conseillre mtropolitaine, lue la ville de Marseille et ancienne Prsidente dEuromed, se retrouva, aussi, fort dmunie. Celle qui fut la flamboyante directrice de campagne de Martine Vassal qui se termina 5,3%, avait connu prcdemment un chec retentissant aux lections lgislatives de juin 2024 dans la circonscription la plus acquise la droite ( 7th and 8th districts, 8.6% of the vote). She remained the LR boss of Bouches-du-Rhône. A federation in freefall which she failed to turn around.
Despite their accumulated defeats and long, very long political careers, the two women concerned had no intention of bowing out.
CONTINUE TO EXIST AT ALL COSTS
As election to the Senate was blocked (a priori only list leaders will be elected due to the multiplicity of candidates), one fine spring morning, Laure-Agnès Caradec discovered she was UDR. This political grouping, allied with the RN, can hope to have a senator elected in the Bouches-du-Rhône. This is therefore the second time that the president of the LR federation in the Bouches-du-Rhône has abandoned ship in a storm, following Martine Vassal in 2022. Will Martine Vassal strip her of her delegation at the Department or not?
As for Catherine Pila, a fear of emptiness led her to stand for the presidency of the LR federation in the Bouches-du-Rhône. It is hard to admit that one's time is up and that the right urgently needs new faces to emerge. She will likely be able to count on the support of the party leader and Martine Vassal, with whom she is close. But is that really an asset?
His rival in this competition, Ludovic Perney, is vice-president of the Region. He is no newcomer to politics, but has not (yet) played a leading role. He has often agreed to step aside for heavyweights or party apparatchiks. Here, he has an opportunity to assert himself and rid the right of a certain number of embarrassments, both male and female.
Let's be honest, rebuilding the right in Marseille is going to be a long and laborious process. A renewal of faces and practices is urgent. A few steadfast convictions in the face of adversity rather than coat-turning. A few ideas would be welcome.
A Marseille, c’est droite année 0, tout est à reconstruire.
[1] https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-martine-vassal-lr-annonce-soutenir-la-candidature-d-emmanuel-macron-20220304
[2] Ni le troisième, Christian Estrosi, qui se voyait déjà à Matignon ou dans le pire des cas à Beauvau après la réélection d’Emmanuel Macron et avait opéré des recrutements en conséquence à la Métropole de Nice transformée en futur cabinet ministériel.
[3] https://www.latribune.fr/politique/2022-04-27/martine-vassal-future-ministre-915683.html
[4] Le scrutin de mars 2026 visait à élire les conseillers municipaux mais aussi les métropolitains.
[5] Un tract mentionnera, par exemple, le doublement de effectifs de police municipale et, à la ligne suivante, la baisse du montant de la taxe foncière. Après avoir mis en faillite le Département et la Métropole, la ville de Marseille semble l’avoir échappé belle !
[6] Elle reprit à son compte la devise « Travail, Famille, Patrie » du régime de Vichy lors d’un débat sur BFM TV, le 19 février. Malgré une session de rattrapage offerte par la même chaîne, la campagne était définitivement plombée.
[7] https://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/publications/departement-des-bouches-du-rhone-2
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