The current Minister for Vocational Education and Training is no longer making a secret of her candidacy for the Senate elections on 27 September 2026. Indeed, at that time, half of the Senate will be renewed[1]. Traffic is likely to be heavy for the «central bloc», within which the winnable seat or seats are at a premium.
The Senate, a missed target for Martine Vassal
The Senate was first and foremost the objective of Martine Vassal, then President of the Metropolis and the Department. Guaranteed peace and quiet in Paris for six years, far from Marseille's affairs and turpitudes. Making oneself forgotten while benefiting from parliamentary immunity—now that could be considered both clever and judicious.
The President of the Département had spent money like water to win over the electors[2]. According to a report by the PACA Regional Court of Audit (December 2025), the person concerned did not hesitate to spend €900 million.[3] for capital grants (far from being a core responsibility of a department) to the smallest communes without taking into account their wealth. All this between 2018 and 2023. The very significant drop in aid to communes in the Department's 2026 draft budget highlights the close correlation between electoral ambitions and targeted spending.
To be fair, Martine Vassal had anticipated her defeat in the municipal elections, but she had not foreseen that this defeat would be a debacle (5.35% in the 2nd round).n'd turn) depriving her of any possibility of leading a Senatorial list in the Bouches-du-Rhône. And that the cat being out of the bag regarding the budgetary bankruptcy of the Metropolis and the near-bankruptcy of the Department would definitively disqualify her and remove any prospects for her. Whether it is the LR or Renaissance/Horizons list, it matters little; the person concerned is used to political zigzags. Martine Vassal has now fallen back on the Department. And keeping it until 2028 will be no mean feat, given how much internal maneuvering is underway.
The Muselier surprise turns into a nightmare
Renaud Muselier, sensing the writing on the wall for the upcoming regional elections in March 2028, immediately announced that he was stepping down as President of the Region to run as a candidate in the senatorial elections himself.
The rout of Martine Vassal cannot be directly and totally transposed, but the voters sent a very clear message which led to the debacle, rout or defeat of all the Sarko-Macronist candidates in the PACA region, of that right wing which shifts with the wind to always attract the favour of those in power: Martine Vassal in Marseille, Christian Estrosi in Nice, the candidate supported by Hubert Falco in Toulon.
This surprise announcement was poorly prepared, most likely rushed. Indeed, its motives do not hold water for a single moment. Renaud Muselier is claiming to take a seat in the Senate to play an active part in the presidential election. A justification that does not stand up for a second against political reality. A regional president has far more power and influence over the election than a senator. Especially since the Senate does not sit during the electoral period. A staggering communication blunder, of proven amateurism on the part of an old political fox...
The net is therefore closing in on Renaud Muselier, who wanted to head the joint list for LR, Horizons, MoDem and UDI. Pulling off the remarkable sleight of hand he managed during the 2020 regional elections seems out of reach: hoodwinking both the presidential party and LR (then led by his friend Christian Jacob), by pretending to each that he was their candidate and not the candidate of the opposing camp. He had thus secured the backing of both political formations.
Senate elections September 2026
Valérie Boyer and Sabrina Agresti Roubache in pole position in their respective camps
Valérie Boyer LR lead candidate
Especially as Valérie Boyer is determined at all costs to lead the LR list and is expected to be selected. The person in question went as far as defending Martine Vassal's mayoral candidacy tooth and nail in order to eliminate a potential rival in the race for the Senate nomination. Indeed, a victorious campaign resulting in the capture of the city of Marseille would naturally neutralise Martine Vassal. It is an understatement to say that these two figures have little in common.
The real problem for Valérie Boyer has a name: the outgoing senator Stéphane Le Rudulier. Indeed, the potential candidate for re-election, who has just been convicted of public insults towards Benoît Payan, is also facing an investigation for intentional violence committed against his successor as Mayor of Rognac, Sylvie Miceli-Houdais. It is by no means certain that this will appeal to the grand electors in the secrecy of the polling booth.
Sabrina Roubache, lead candidate for the central bloc
The candidacy of Minister Sabrina Roubache, whose closeness to the Macron couple is well known, definitively closes off the possibility of a joint LR/Renaissance list for the Senate elections. Only the two top candidates from the two political formations are expected to be elected, barring any surprises.
The Minister had distanced herself from Martine Vassal during the mayoral campaign, denouncing her excessive shift to the right. Even though her party had indeed backed the candidate.
Renaud Muselier: the risk of losing everything
Renaud Muselier is now in a situation to say the least uncomfortable: he has crossed the Rubicon… lightly. His departure from the Region was presented as a done deal, the name of his successor already put forward: François de Canson. The Mayor of La Londe-les-Maures and currently third Vice-President of the Region offers an image of renewal that the local right really needs. No turning back is possible unless renouncing every ounce of dignity and honour. The end of the road seems to be taking shape for Renaud Muselier as for Martine Vassal, without a sweet six-year reprieve to be spent in the thick red velvet and wood panelling of the Palais du Luxembourg.
In Marseille, it's year zero for the right.
[1] In mainland France, the departments concerned by the vote, in numerical order, are those running from Ain (1) to Indre (36), and then from Bas-Rhin (67) to Territoire de Belfort (90), with the exception of the departments in the Île-de-France region. In the overseas territories, French Guiana, the islands of Wallis and Futuna, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin and French Polynesia are concerned.
[2]Departmental councillors and municipal council representatives account for 95 % of the total of some 162,000 electors.
[3] The department’s support for local authority investment accounts for 44 per cent of the capital grants paid out and nearly 900 million euros (M€) in expenditure between 2018 and 2023. This support is primarily directed towards the least populous local authorities (…). The Chamber notes that the amount of aid is not determined by the recipients’ fiscal or territorial wealth. Finally, whilst the debt of the department’s local authorities has developed more favourably than the national average, the department’s comparative financial situation has, on the contrary, deteriorated. In this context, the financial merits of such a substantial investment in support for local authorities have not been demonstrated’.
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