1648 or the beginning of the Treaty as a means of settling disputes, the first draft of an international order
The beginning of the construction of an international order based on the Westphalian treaties (or Peace of Westphalia) is generally dated to 1648, signed on October 24, 1648, which simultaneously concluded two series of conflicts in Europe:
- the Thirty Years' War, which involved all the powers of the continent in the conflict between the Holy Roman Empire and its Protestant German states in rebellion;
- The War of the Four Hundred Years, which pitted the rebellious United Provinces against the Spanish monarchy.
This system thrived, developed, and became the go-to reference until quite recently.
This effort towards an international order governed by treaties and freely consented mutual intentions to make peace, trade, form alliances and respect them, grew steadily throughout the 19th century and in the aftermath of the First World War, with the creation of the Société des Nations (SDN). It reached its culmination with the United Nations Charter and all the international institutions that depend on it more or less. International law became an indispensable reference point. This involved making a new Shoah impossible and establishing the right of peoples to determine their own destinies.
Even George W Bush, when he decided to end Saddam Hussein’s regime, sought to obtain international legitimacy through the UN. The French chauvinist government, leading a broad coalition, forced him into a war devoid of any legality and legitimacy.
In 2011, when it came to overthrowing the Libyan regime of Gaddafi, there was a resolution of the Security Council (1703) authorizing intervention but not the overthrow of the regime. Germany abstained, a first setback in what was then the Franco-German partnership. Russia did not oppose it, but it drew a conclusion that would have serious consequences for the future: since the Western powers had not respected the terms of the resolution, blocking the Security Council would now be more prudent.
The return to the simple assumed power relationship, over the last ten years
The invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the conflict triggered by Russia in Ukraine (February 2002) are contrary to international law despite psychological motives largely underestimated.
In Gaza, the entire Charter of the United Nations was violated point by point and humanitarian law was completely denied. Lebanon was bombed and invaded without any international legitimacy.
Donald Trump wants to annex Canada and Greenland, the Panama Canal. He will rule the states in a family-like and perhaps even dynastic way.
As for China, what will be the fate of Taiwan?
Let’s be clear: international law and its corollary, the multilateral system, are dead. The unfortunate relegation of the UN as a decision-making system is well underway. Who benefits from it?
The great powers and their satellites are allowing their hegemonic will to run free
The only power dynamic always benefits, very naturally, the major powers. Guided by strong men whose democracy is the least of their concerns, they clearly demonstrate their will to expand and serve the interests of their countries in the long term.
The United States, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia, play a leading role: vast territory, a large population, a powerful industrial-military complex, and above all control over critical or strategic materials essential for the proper functioning of the economy and also for the ecological transition launched in 2019 by the European Union’s «Green Deal».
Who are the losers?
First and foremost, Europe is a geopolitical dwarf that does not possess any diplomatic or military capabilities. In fact, what was possible at 6, 9, or 12 is now completely out of reach. The former member states of the Warsaw Pact are now torn between a pro-Russian and a pro-Western faction.
A common foreign policy has therefore become out of reach, as some states favor the US military umbrella of NATO and others are beholden to Moscow. 80% of the weapons materials supplied by the Europeans to Ukraine have an American origin.
An aging population, a lack of energy resources that forces Europe to turn to the BRICS to secure its supplies, while diplomatic relations are strained to say the least. The hypothesis of a paralysis of the European economy due to a lack of lithium, aluminum, cobalt, nickel or rare earths is not entirely excluded. For France, there is an essential issue at stake: uranium to supply its nuclear sector. Our country’s best comparative advantage. Taking the geopolitical risk into account encourages optimism.
Let us be clear: by rejecting international law as the regulator of the international order, Europe has committed suicide. Its unconditional alignment with the United States in Gaza was not only a grave moral fault but also sowed the seeds of a colossal loss of influence. France and the United Kingdom have sold the advantage inherited from a distant history, which allowed them to be permanent members of the Security Council. This regime has come to an end; it no longer serves any purpose in the face of the unilateral, assumed, and unlimited power dynamic.
The BRICS and the United States are big winners of European weaknesses
The major beneficiaries are naturally the BRICS and the United States, which, in turn, possess all the advantages of power, led by Emperors against Western leaders who are often just insignificant communicators. The rejection of the «liberal democracy» model benefits the Global South greatly. Once again, Gaza will be an accelerator, as it has proven, to the point of astonishment that «two different standards» were no longer hidden and that international law had been observed.
This «shift in the world» would not have been possible without the infinite weakness of the European democracies. And that is where politics and international affairs converge. The democratic system is at its breaking point; it may be irremediably in crisis. It has become a means of selecting the worst of the worst as the people have turned away from the elites deemed ineffective and corrupt.
Power in free wheeling
We have returned to the game that so many teenagers love: «Risk», «I think you constitute a threat or that you cut off a strategic axis from me; I attack you because I am stronger». This is the new international system.
Yes, alas, «war has a beautiful future.» And we are entering a post-democratic world.
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