Can Édouard Philippe and the central bloc still win in 2027?

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The return to grace: real but volatile progress

Édouard Philippe’s re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026 has acted as a real political catalyst. According to the Odoxa poll for Public Sénat and the regional press, the former Prime Minister has seen a spectacular rise in support. He is now emerging as the only candidate likely to qualify for the second round of the presidential election against a thoroughly dominant Jordan Bardella. In an Elabe poll for La Tribune Dimanche, Édouard Philippe is credited with 20.5 % to 25.5 % of voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election, far behind the RN candidate, who is polling at 31% – 35 %. 

What sets Philippe apart from all the other candidates in the Republican camp, however, is his proven ability to win the second round. He is the only candidate tested who is likely to beat the far right: polling at 53 % versus 47 % in a hypothetical run-off against Marine Le Pen, and at 51.5 % versus 48.5 % if Jordan Bardella stands.

Yet these figures mask a more concerning reality. In November 2025, a different barometer told a completely different story. Jordan Bardella, credited with 35 % of potential votes in the first round, would have won against Philippe in the second round by 53 % to 46 %, marking a sharp break with the projections of the previous spring, where Philippe would have beaten Bardella by 54 % to 46 %. The volatility of this central space is therefore structural: it reflects less an entrenched conviction than a tactical resistance vote, liable to vanish at the slightest misstep.

Philippe, natural leader of a referee-less camp

Within the centrist bloc itself, the competition remains wide open. Édouard Philippe stands out as the natural leader of the centrist bloc for 62 % of supporters within this space. However, this hegemony is far from guaranteed given the ambitions of Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau.

In an Elabe survey, Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe are neck and neck to represent the central bloc among the Ensemble electorate in the 2024 legislative elections, with 42 % for Attal compared to 40 % for Philippe. However, among Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons supporters, Philippe takes the lead, with 60 % to 48 %. This distinction is crucial: Philippe appeals more outside his immediate base, whereas Attal maintains a stronger party grounding.

With 47 % of French people thinking he would make a good candidate for his camp, Philippe is 11 points ahead of Gabriel Attal (36 %) and 15 points ahead of Gérald Darmanin (32 %). The gap is even clearer among centrist supporters.

Then there is the question of Bruno Retailleau and The Republicans. Odoxa tested the scenario of a dual candidacy in the first round, that of Édouard Philippe and Bruno Retailleau. The verdict is indisputable: fragmentation creates a risk of elimination for both. The lesson of 2002 haunts all campaign headquarters: the mainstream right and the centre could neutralise each other and hand the second round to the RN.

The enlargement strategy: looking beyond Horizons

Édouard Philippe's strategic lucidity lies in his awareness that his party alone is not enough. Philippe stated that ’we will be able to discuss when the time comes so that we can make a bloc prevail, a republican bloc, which believes in Europe, in the market economy, which thinks that France must be powerful.« And he explicitly opened the door to the republican left: »Of course we must talk to the republican left. I have a lot of respect for left-wing elected officials, and I am not going to stop talking to them.«

Ultimately, Édouard Philippe intends to step away from Horizons. It will be a primary vehicle for the campaign, but other people are going to join forces. «Édouard Philippe is well aware that he will need to go beyond Horizons to win,» confirms Senator Agnès Canayer to Public Sénat. The idea of a new umbrella structure is circulating among those close to him. A model similar to Chevènement's Republican Pole in 2002, a broader umbrella than the original party, capable of bringing together figures from different backgrounds.

On the moderate right, the diagnosis is shared. «I think the republican front no longer exists. It's cracking everywhere. The dykes have burst today. So we'll have to find something else,» adds Agnès Canayer on Public Sénat. 

The paradox of Macronism's legacy

Édouard Philippe has to solve a tricky equation: capitalising on his governmental experience while emancipating himself from the Macronist record. Prime Minister from 2017 to 2020, he bears both the reforms achieved and the associated unpopularity.

On pensions, the wound is still raw. In 2019, Philippe defended the universal system and again backed his reform in the face of a motion of no confidence in 2020. For a large section of the French public, he remains the man who wanted to extend the contribution period, a particularly negative image among working-class circles which the RN has managed to capture. 

On immigration, the Horizons line is attempting a precarious balance. Horizons stated in the National Assembly in November 2025 that it wants to regain control over flows, combat irregular immigration and renegotiate frameworks deemed obsolete, such as the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement. For its supporters, this is pragmatism. For its opponents, it is proof that one should not be fooled by too smooth an image.

Polls describe a former prime minister regarded as serious and hardworking, but also opportunistic. And above all, they show that he is starting with a solid base in the centre, much more so than on the left. The question of his credibility among the working classes remains wide open. 

The conditions for victory and the verdict

Three cumulative conditions seem necessary for Édouard Philippe to reach the Élysée in 2027. Firstly, the unity of the central bloc around his candidature, avoiding a dual candidature with Retailleau or head-on competition with Attal in the first round. The question is no longer just about knowing who speaks the loudest. It is about knowing who can still speak on behalf of a camp broad enough not to end up by the wayside in 2027. The central bloc has candidates. It still lacks an arbiter. 

Secondly, a split left-wing candidacy, which currently seems likely, allowing Philippe to finish clearly in second place in the first round without being overtaken by a unified left-wing candidate.

Thirdly, a decisive judicial and political variable: the fate of Marine Le Pen. Convicted at first instance to a 5-year ban on holding public office with provisional enforcement in the parliamentary assistants case, her candidacy remains suspended pending the outcome of her appeal. If Le Pen is barred and replaced by Bardella, the autumn 2025 polls suggest that Philippe would lose the second round. The RN's legal vulnerability could paradoxically strengthen it by portraying it as a victim of the system.

Édouard Philippe currently has the most complete profile across the republican spectrum: government experience, local roots, an image of seriousness, rhetorical capability, and a long-term vision that is rare in a political landscape dominated by immediacy. The presentation of his manifesto, announced for May 2026, will be a decisive test of his ability to offer something other than mere management.

However, victory in 2027 requires a rare conjunction of favourable events. The RN remains dominant in the first round regardless of its candidate. The France of 2027 is a France where distrust of elites and the establishment, of which Philippe is objectively a figure, remains structurally high. Winning, for him, means convincing people that experience and competence are better than anger and rupture. A difficult gamble. Not impossible.