It was widely accepted that Donald Trump's defeat in the 2020 elections marked the end of his political career.. Indeed, from the moment he left the White House, the tycoon faced a huge political storm based on multiple accusations, including responsibility for the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, a conviction for 34 counts of falsification of accounting documents related to payments concerning the alleged relationship he had with an actress X, and federal investigations related to the possession of non-classified confidential documents, which led to a series of searches at his home in Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach.
At that moment, Trump had the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president since the end of World War II. His opponents, including the media, were convinced that justice would prevent a political return of Trump. However, this factor was the The first mistake of the «establishment,» which, from the very moment Trump left the White House, launched a whole strategy of political bullying to trap him and prevent him from achieving his electoral aspirations for 2024.
Trump's capabilities were clearly underestimated
The contempt for Donald Trump has paradoxically strengthened him progressively and systematically because, The more accusations were leveled against him, the more his popularity and media visibility increased. Trump made headlines in all American press throughout the entire Biden administration., This situation undoubtedly played a lot in his favor in the absence of Joe Biden in the media and the growing doubts about his health and cognitive abilities to exercise the presidency. A factor that Trump took advantage of, until Biden finally made the decision to withdraw (as Geopolitics.fr had anticipated at the beginning of July last summer). The debate between Trump and Biden: a symbol of the decline of American democracy? | Geopolitics.fr
During this period, Trump simultaneously worked on his defense, obtaining that the Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, granted him partial immunity in order to postpone the trials and therefore the verdict in the case of actress X until after the presidential elections.
The economic downturn has affected the Democratic administration in terms of electoral results
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States experienced inflation exceeding 9% in 2022, which was detrimental to Biden who implemented an interest rate hike, resulting in an increase in the cost of credit and mortgages, with a significant impact on purchasing power and a significant loss of jobs. At the same time, many newly arrived migrants were allowed to work thanks to temporary permits. 70% of the voters indicated that economic issues played a decisive role in their choice. For the record, during Trump’s term, the implementation of protectionist policies (which will, no doubt, be re-applied during a second term) had borne fruit.
Trump has been campaigning for 4 years against 3 months for Harris
Trump's greatest achievement was staying in the campaign from the moment he left Washington, Because he did not doubt for a second that he would return to power; it was only a matter of time. His supporters were spreading throughout the country, announcing: «Trump 2024, Take America Back» and «Make America Great Again». At the same time, it can be said that sThe best asset of the campaign was President Joe Biden, who, in addition to imposing a media diet, made countless mistakes. which would have cost him politically dearly, as well as his vice president Harris. Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race on July 21 came Late, barely 4 months before the elections, placing the Democratic Party in a delicate situation. Donald Trump had indeed stated, in an interview with CNN, that it would be easier to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris than President Biden. That is what happened... Kamala Harris, sponsored by the Obamas and the Clintons, managed to raise $1 billion, almost three times the amount raised by Trump. Not to mention solid media support including artists, athletes, influencers, and important figures in the intellectual world. In vain...
Kamala Harris' campaign: a huge failure
Unlike many of her predecessors, Kamala Harris was a virtually invisible vice president. Many learned about her politically after her hasty inauguration. But the average American citizen knew little about her. Only his actions regarding the migrant issue were identified. This was precisely the main electoral weapon used by Trump to attack the Biden administration. Furthermore, Harris also had no significant experience with the media., Unlike Trump, Harris's candidacy has been confirmed. The decline of the Democratic Party and its lack of leadership To defeat a figure as controversial as Trump, who eventually became an indispensable figure for the Republicans. The media, which, in the same way they had done for Hillary Clinton, proclaimed his future victory everywhere, was also defeated.
The collapse of the establishment and the possible transformation of American political and social identity
Trump and his running mate JD Vance opted for a highly patriotic message that capitalised on the people’s discontent with Harris’s inaction, who, with a moderate and uncreative discourse, represented an ineffective administration. Both at the national and international level. The demonization of Trump’s figure has subsided, especially after the two failed attacks.
These unexpected electoral results hit the US political establishment hard, which will enter a deep period of questioning. Indeed, Trump is not from their ranks and Its success represents a major challenge for traditional American political culture. As I indicated in my article, The debate between Trump and Biden: a symbol of the decline of American democracy? The challenge of democracy in the United States now raises multiple questions for the next four years, even beyond Trump's promises for his second term.
The equation is complex in the face of the reconstruction of a polarized society that mistrusts the parties and does not find a true link between the communities and their political leaders. Therefore, both the Republicans and the Democrats will need time to start rebuilding their bases and programmatic architecture. Trump has real political comfort to govern with absolute power with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. Will Trumpism become a future independent political trend from the Republicans? Will the Obamas and the Clintons usher in a generational transition among the Democrats?
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