Erwan Davoux, editor-in-chief of «Geopolitics.fr» and a former project manager at the Élysée, has advised numerous right-wing political figures internationally. In an opinion piece, he decries for «Marianne» how France's security-focused approach towards the African continent is working against it.
It was during François Hollande's five-year term that the purely security-driven approach to the African continent and the proliferation of inappropriate behaviour began, both of which have only intensified under the Macron presidencies. As a result, France is being driven out of its former «backyard», with only Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire remaining. For how much longer?
The policies of François Hollande and Emmanuel [Macron] are part of a continuum of failures: a security-obsessed approach at the expense of politics. There is a bias, a tropism, which is purely military. Indeed, François Hollande's policy towards Africa, of which Jean-Yves Le Drian was the chief orchestrator, was narrowly confined to the security sphere alone without any concomitant political vision. Admittedly, François Hollande had to manage the terrible consequences of the Libyan affair and the flood of weapons into the region. Was that a reason to forget that a military crisis can only have a political resolution? It is the misfortune of our African friends that allowed him to exist, in Mali as in the Central African Republic.
WORDS THAT HURT
Stabilisation, and the building of a realistic and inclusive political process, are relegated to the background. In Mali, France intervened late, in a completely isolated manner and with nothing to offer for the aftermath, without managing to bring the main states concerned around the table. How can one be surprised, under these conditions, by the easy accusations of neocolonialism? The French President would go so far as to declare at the Africa-France summit in Bamako in January 2017: « France is not seeking influence in Africa »making our Chinese, Russian and Turkish competitors probably cry with laughter or joy.
«Beyond the inexperience, the lack of vision and consistency, there are words, attitudes, and behaviours that can hurt and ruin the trust of our partners.»
Emmanuel Macron's policy, still heavily reliant on Jean-Yves Le Drian, will remain one of continuity. From the end of Barkhane to the humiliating expulsion from Niger, politics has been an utter failure. In Niger, every possible mistake was made, all the more pronounced as every martial speech by France was followed by a backing down.
Beyond inexperience, the lack of vision and coherence, there are words, attitudes, and behaviours that can hurt and ruin the trust of our partners. At this sad game of bad jokes, François Hollande and Emmanuel Macron, alas, have no rivals... François Hollande's quips such as « Manuel Valls has returned safely from Algeria »to Emmanuel Macron's unbelievable remarks at the University of Ouagadougou on 28 November 2017.
Come to officially put yet another end to Françafrique, the French president, through his casual attitude, contradicted the entire (excellent) spirit of his speech. Addressing the Burkinabe President: « So, he's leaving... Stay here ! jokes the French president. So, he's gone to fix the air conditioning »A few moments of self-satisfaction and laughter, the ruin of our long-term political credibility. Emmanuel Macron was also strongly rebuked in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by President Félix Tshisekedi, on 4 March 2023, regarding the« African-style electoral compromise »which he will try, unsuccessfully, to clear Jean-Yves Le Drian of (him again!).
«Whilst Senegal is going through a political crisis, is a Sahelian scenario conceivable in this country with entirely different consequences?»
French leaders, unaware that African peoples were ardently wishing to move from formal to real independence, behaved like petty noblemen coming to visit their backyard. They are directly responsible for our expulsion, and banking on the failure of the coups d'état already seems like a flawed strategy. The new regimes are holding their ground and enjoying a certain amount of popularity. The Americans, for their part, have not cut ties and will reap the rewards when the time comes. France now holds no trumps up its sleeve.
IS A SAHELIAN SCENARIO PLAUSIBLE?
While Senegal is going through a political crisis, is a Sahelian scenario conceivable in this country with entirely different consequences? Senegal is at the heart of French diplomacy in Africa. The French presence in Senegal has nothing in common with that of the three countries in the Sahel zone. Around 25,000 French nationals live there, by far the largest French community in West Africa. The French Embassy in Dakar is the largest in the region and Senegal is the flagship country of the francophonie. Its undeniably democratic character, its lineage of prestigious presidents with renowned diplomatic expertise, its solid state and its legendary charm make it, in many respects, an exceptional country in the region.
«Let us make no mistake, the mindset of the Senegalese population towards France is very comparable to that prevailing in the three countries of the Sahelian zone.»
From an economic perspective, France is Senegal's leading trading partner and its main supplier. France is also the largest investor in Senegal, accounting for 43 % of foreign direct investment (FDI) stock, while 250 French companies employ over 30,000 people there. These figures suggest that while the French withdrawal from Africa is evident, it has not reached Senegal. And yet... Make no mistake, the mindset of the Senegalese population towards France is very similar to that prevailing in the three countries of the Sahel region.
The idea is widely held among the Senegalese population that this partnership benefits France more than Senegal, and that France loots resources rather than transferring added value. In the incessant whirlwind of twists and turns that have unfolded in this country over the last few weeks, it is now possible to see things a little more clearly.
There is strong public pressure for the presidential election to be held before April 2nd, the official end date of Macky Sall's mandate. This solution makes it possible to avoid unrest, overflows and clashes. Nevertheless, it has the disadvantage of not featuring two heavyweights in the race for the supreme magistracy, Karim Wade and Ousmane Sonko. Will the new president truly be legitimate? The Constitutional Council, which has just delivered a landmark decision by opposing the postponement of the presidential election (and the extension of Macky Sall's mandate), is weakened by the doubts hanging over the integrity of two of its members.
The role of Prime Minister Amadou Ba, who is very discreet in his expression, seems fundamental and he appears to have done what was necessary for the Constitutional Council to deliver its surprise decision. He is most likely aware that for him, it is now or never. He took advantage of President Macky Sall's support (including against his historical troops) before playing his own hand. For him, an election without Wade and Sonko is absolutely necessary to stand a chance. He appears more at ease exercising power than conquering it.
One thing is already certain: the election will not be held on 25 February. As of 2 April, will Macky Sall remain in power or hand over the reins of power to the President of the National Assembly? His two predecessors, Abdou Diouf and Abdoulaye Wade, who enjoy a certain authority and prestige, made it known in a letter dated 11 February that they wished for appeasement and had confidence in Macky Sall to resolve the situation. President Macky Sall responded to this expectation during a televised address on 22 February. He confirmed that his mandate ended on 2 April and did not rule out the early release of Ousmane Sonko in the interests of appeasement and reconciliation. The United States would be well advised to ease the pressure on Macky Sall and tighten it on a leader guilty of a possible genocide with complete impunity.
WHAT IS FRANCE'S INTEREST AND WHAT PART IS IT PLAYING?
In Senegal, the « at the same time »was used in a thoroughly inconclusive manner. While maintaining a privileged relationship with President Macky Sall, Emmanuel Macron sent a delegation from the Élysée's «Africa unit» to send signals to his opponent, Ousmane Sonko, in March 2023, in a manner he hoped would remain confidential. Astounding naivety or amateurism. The outcome here too is disastrous: Macky Sall will be offended and France has nothing to expect in return from Ousmane Sonko, who is subject to other far more powerful influences. Unless one is a Machiavelli and handles him with infinite precision, which is far from being the case, the « at the same time »proves disastrous in foreign policy.
For the time being, France has in a way done the bare minimum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has limited itself to sober press releases reiterating fundamental principles. This cautious stance, which cannot serve as a policy, will not be able to be maintained much longer, given the legitimate imperative of not seeing a man hostile to its interests install himself in the presidential palace. Failing that, France's African policy would truly be over, with very significant detrimental consequences for our compatriots living in this region.
French diplomacy, which seems obsessed with the Russian-Ukrainian war, would be well advised to devote more time to Senegal and contribute to a win-win political scenario. France is walking a tightrope and the slightest misstep would cause a fatal leap into the void. Senegal has paid « the blood money » twice to contribute to the liberation of France. Have we forgotten the crucial role of Senegalese tirailleurs during the landings in Provence? This bond forged by history deserves very special attention.
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