Interview in the JDD
Donald Trump is alarming the Europeans by urging them to ensure their own defense, and bypassing them on the Ukrainian issue. Is Washington making a strategic turn, or simply ending a certain hypocrisy? Elements of answer with Erwan Davoux*, former chargé de mission at the Élysée.
Interviews by Elise Morel 23/02/2025 at 15:10, Updated on 23/02/2025 at 15:35
The JDD. While Donald Trump talks directly with Vladimir Putin With regard to the future of Ukraine, Europe, which has been excluded from the negotiating table, seems more than ever to be left to its own devices. Is this a historic turning point?
Erwan Davoux. For several years now, the’Europe is considered by the United States Like a vassal who did not know how to take control of his destiny and invest enough in his defense. We went from a time when Washington wanted to establish a European pillar of NATO to a time when Washington intends to disengage from the Old Continent to focus on Asia and the China. Unfortunately, France is not in a favorable position to impose anything.
«Unfortunately, France is not in a favorable position to impose anything»
On the Ukrainian file, in Europe, it is the United Kingdom who took the lead in the negotiations. London, the main European contributor to the war effort in Ukraine alongside Berlin, also benefits from political stability that Paris does not have. The United Kingdom also maintains, through its history and its membership in the Anglo-Saxon world, a privileged relationship with the United States. On the French side, Emmanuel Macron is at the forefront of the discourse: he is a fervent communicator and it is clear that he is trying to position himself at the forefront, but he has not yet managed to do so., ultimately, which has little influence. France does not inspire respect, and the arrival of Donald Trump The White House is far from reversing the trend.
Pierre Lellouche For a long time, he has pointed the finger at the EU’s impotence, calling the European leaders “stupid.” «somnambules» and of’«illusionists». The war in Ukraine has revealed the strategic and military ineptitude of European countries. Do you think there will be a before and after Ukraine?
There will be a realization, that is undeniable. And it has already happened. With Trump, Europe knows that it will not be able to count on the American umbrella. On the other hand, I do not believe in a global awakening. The 27-nation Europe is a politically and diplomatically divided entity. We do not have the same strategic and military cultures, let alone the same security interests.
« With Trump, Europe knows that it cannot count on the American umbrella »
In terms of defense and security, it must be understood that Europe is trapped by its geography. It would therefore be preferable to resort to strengthened bilateral and regional military cooperation, as already exists between France and the United Kingdom, or between France and the United States.’Germany. For France, the crisis arc is not to the east, nor to the north, but to the south, in the African and Middle Eastern theaters. Cooperation among the countries of southern Europe, between France and the United States, and with the European Union, is essential.’Spain, the’Italy, And Greece would be appropriate in this regard. This, of course, does not prevent the construction of a truly European defense industry.
How would you characterize the relations between the United States and France, in particular?
France has long been a demanding ally that the United States respected. But that has not always been the case: remember the turbulent relations of the time of General de Gaulle. The United States is our historical ally, but they have always defended and prioritized their own interests. This is a constant and we must not forget it.
«The United States is our historical ally, but they have always defended and prioritized their own interests»
We have already experienced several setbacks: the French «no» in 2003 to the war in Iraq left a legacy. The same applies to the revelations of Edward Snowden regarding NSA surveillance, or the acquisition of Alstom’s energy division by General Electric. Not to mention the more recent crisis involving the Australian submarines, in which the United States intervened to thwart the contract for the sale of 12 French submarines to Australia.
There have been several times of a breach of trust between Paris and Washington. And one must not delude oneself: Trump knows only the relationship of forces in its raw state and does not hold the French president in high esteem. France is treated with extremely condescending behavior by the American president. Of course, Emmanuel Macron launched major communication campaigns, such as during Donald Trump’s and Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the Élysée Palace in December last year, on the occasion of the reopening of Our Lady of Paris, But this is essentially spectacle politics. And it is a fact that this has so far produced no proven results.
After all, can France still have a say in major international affairs?
ED: France has been in a bad position for many years. The diplomatic impasse in France began under François Hollande and Laurent Fabius, but there was already a first rift under Nicolas Sarkozy and Bernard Kouchner, particularly regarding our relations with Germany. Franco-German dialogue is no longer worth anything, and the driving force it had on Europe has disappeared. In Africa and the Arab world, we are witnessing the gradual fading of France and its influence. And this is more broadly true on the international stage.
« France is now a medium-power country whose diplomatic policy is limited to rhetoric »
Moreover, France’s Atlanticist stance has undermined our role as a mediator that had previously prevailed, as was the case in Georgia. France has lost its aura and has retreated to the confines of its geography. It is now an average power whose diplomatic policy is confined to rhetoric.
An average power, admittedly, but one that does have the nuclear weapon…
Yes, our deterrent power matters. As does our army. And we have other legacies of history to weigh in the world. We all remember Dominique de Villepin’s 2003 speech to the United Nations Security Council in the face of Colin Powell. Our seat on the UN Security Council is, in this regard, an undeniable lever of French power. But it is not Dominique de Villepin who wants it. Our posture undoubtedly lacks boldness. And I deplore that French foreign policy has become the hostage of a handful of loyalists of Emmanuel Macron, who neutralized the Quai d’Orsay through political appointments. Take the case of Stéphane Séjourné…
Ultimately, what do you think of French diplomacy under the Macron presidency?
Emmanuel Macron, a convinced Europeanist, wanted to make him the champion of «European sovereignty» and of «The Europe of Defense». But what about French sovereignty? I think he is the last holdout for a federal Europe, which today no one believes in anymore, except for him, Ursula von der Leyen and the rest of the European elite. A Europe increasingly discredited by the people through the elections.
As far as France is concerned, the decline of French influence is not a myth. To have an impact on world affairs, we must rebuild alliances and gain credibility. This can only be achieved through the building of a genuine power policy. This means reestablishing the policy of independence advocated by General de Gaulle and breaking with the strategic conformism that has bound us to the United States for more than a quarter of a century. «Allied but not aligned» That is how de Gaulle conceived France’s foreign policy. That is what we must strive for; otherwise, we will remain the hostage of rivalries between great powers.
* Erwan Davoux, a graduate of the IEP in Paris and INALCO, is president of LMD CONSEIL (strategic advisory council, economic intelligence, geopolitical risk, political influence, economic diplomacy). He was a civil servant in the Ministry of the Interior and Defense (DGSE). A former chargé d’affaires at the Presidency of the Republic (diplomatic cell), he advised numerous political figures internationally (including two former Prime Ministers).
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