{"id":4505,"date":"2026-07-04T13:09:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T11:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/?p=4505"},"modified":"2026-07-04T13:09:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T11:09:58","slug":"%e6%b3%95%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%8e%e6%ad%a3%e5%9c%a8%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e7%a7%a9%e5%ba%8f%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e7%ad%89%e5%bc%ba%e5%ba%a6%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/zh\/2026\/07\/04\/la-france-et-lordre-international-en-mutation-repositionnement-strategique-dune-puissance-moyenne\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u4e2d\u7b49\u5f3a\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u4f4d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5ba3\u626c\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u548c\u5317\u4eac\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u6c42\u00ab\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\u9053\u8def\u00bb\u7684\u57c3\u9a6c\u7ebd\u57c3\u5c14\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u9f99\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u65e5\u76ca\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u788e\u7247\u5316\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u9ed8\u8ba4\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e00\u62b1\u8d1f\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Le concept d’\u00ab autonomie strat\u00e9gique europ\u00e9enne \u00bb, marotte fran\u00e7aise depuis des d\u00e9cennies, a lui aussi subi une mue significative. Il ne s’agit plus tant pour Paris de construire une d\u00e9fense europ\u00e9enne vraiment ind\u00e9pendante des \u00c9tats-Unis, objectif irr\u00e9aliste \u00e0 court terme. Mais plut\u00f4t de d\u00e9velopper des capacit\u00e9s permettant aux Europ\u00e9ens d’agir seuls \u00ab quand c’est n\u00e9cessaire \u00bb. Selon une formule consacr\u00e9e et r\u00e9currente de la diplomatie fran\u00e7aise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette nuance s\u00e9mantique traduit un pragmatisme accru. La France reconna\u00eet que le soutien am\u00e9ricain demeure essentiel pour atteindre ses objectifs politiques. Mais elle refuse de s’en remettre enti\u00e8rement \u00e0 Washington dont la fiabilit\u00e9 est d\u00e9sormais questionn\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u8054\u76df\u00bb\uff1a\u65b0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4f20\u64ad\u6e20\u9053<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L’engagement fran\u00e7ais en Ukraine illustre parfaitement cette nouvelle approche. Conscients que leurs stocks militaires et leurs finances ne leur permettent pas de fournir autant d’armements que d’autres pays en proportion de leur PIB, les responsables fran\u00e7ais ont mis\u00e9 sur un autre levier. Celui de l’audace politique combin\u00e9e \u00e0 l’exp\u00e9rience militaire et \u00e0 la dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire. Macron s’est impos\u00e9 comme l’architecte d’une \u00ab coalition des volontaires \u00bb. Cette derni\u00e8re, r\u00e9unissant les pays europ\u00e9ens dispos\u00e9s \u00e0 aller au-del\u00e0 du consensus minimal de l’OTAN ou de l’Union europ\u00e9enne. L’initiative, annonc\u00e9e fin 2025, visait \u00e0 donner une dimension plus strat\u00e9gique au soutien occidental \u00e0 Kiev, au-del\u00e0 de la simple fourniture d’\u00e9quipements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u7acb\u573a\u4e0e\u5df4\u9ece\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u5bf9\u5317\u7ea6\u5411\u4e1c\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u96c5\u514b\u00b7\u5e0c\u62c9\u514b\u66fe\u6279\u8bc4\u8fc7\u5c06\u5317\u7ea6\u6269\u5f20\u5230\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u62c5\u5fc3\u4e0e\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4f1a\u6076\u5316\u30022022\u5e742\u6708\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9a6c\u514b\u9f99\u672c\u4eba\u591a\u6b21\u547c\u5401\u4e0e\u666e\u4eac\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u906d\u53d7\u00ab\u5c48\u8fb1\u00bb\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le revirement est donc consid\u00e9rable : lors du forum Globsec de Bratislava en juin 2023, le pr\u00e9sident fran\u00e7ais d\u00e9clarait que les garanties offertes par le pass\u00e9 \u00e0 l’Ukraine et \u00e0 la G\u00e9orgie avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00ab bien trop faibles \u00bb. Il exprimait son souhait de voir la Su\u00e8de rejoindre l’Alliance et d\u00e9montrant ainsi une position favorable \u00e0 l’\u00e9largissement de l’OTAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette \u00e9volution s’explique par une lecture lucide du rapport de forces. La France seule ne peut peser face \u00e0 une Russie revancharde, soutenue tacitement par la Chine, ni face \u00e0 des \u00c9tats-Unis dont la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re oscille au gr\u00e9 des alternances politiques. En revanche, en se positionnant comme le catalyseur des initiatives europ\u00e9ennes les plus ambitieuses, Paris peut d\u00e9multiplier son influence r\u00e9elle. Le pari consiste \u00e0 transformer un handicap, des moyens limit\u00e9s en atout. Une capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 f\u00e9d\u00e9rer et \u00e0 donner une coh\u00e9rence politique aux efforts dispers\u00e9s des partenaires europ\u00e9ens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u9971\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u4e2d\u7684\u77db\u76fe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e9b\u6b27\u6d32\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6000\u7591\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u81ea\u4e3b\u6218\u7565\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u672c\u8eab\u4ecd\u7136\u5907\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u9a6c\u514b\u9f99\u4e0e\u65f6\u4efb\u5fb7\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u5b89\u683c\u96f7\u7279\u00b7\u514b\u62c9\u59c6-\u5361\u4f26\u9c8d\u5c14\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u4e8e\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5173\u7cfb\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u5c31\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0e\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5b9e\u73b0\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7b49\u56fd\u90fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u4f18\u5148\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u8054\u7cfb\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6cd5\u56fd\u5728\u897f\u5df4\u5c14\u5e72\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u4e5f\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u5df4\u9ece\u4e8e2019\u5e74\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a\u548c\u5317\u9a6c\u5176\u987f\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u53c8\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6269\u5927\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3e\u63aa\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a \u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6cd5\u56fd\u5bf9\u5df4\u5c14\u5e72\u56fd\u5bb6\u878d\u5165\u6b27\u6d32\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u654c\u89c6\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u7a0e\u6536\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u6240\u5728\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6cd5\u56fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u6539\u5584\u5176\u8d22\u653f\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u58f0\u79f0\u5728\u9632\u52a1\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\u62e5\u6709\u6b27\u6d32\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u8fc8\u5411\u6cd5\u56fd\u6743\u529b\u7684\u65b0\u8bed\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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La France dispose d’atouts singuliers pour naviguer dans cet environnement incertain. Son si\u00e8ge permanent au Conseil de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des Nations unies, sa force de dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire autonome, son r\u00e9seau diplomatique mondial, sa pr\u00e9sence militaire sur plusieurs continents gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 ses territoires d’outre-mer, et une industrie de d\u00e9fense performante sont \u00e0 prendre en consid\u00e9ration. Ces attributs lui conf\u00e8rent une l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 que peu de partenaires europ\u00e9ens peuvent revendiquer. Mais ils ne suffiront pas sans une capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 construire des coalitions durables. Ni m\u00eame \u00e0 incarner un projet europ\u00e9en qui d\u00e9passe les seuls int\u00e9r\u00eats fran\u00e7ais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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