{"id":4563,"date":"2026-08-12T17:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/?p=4563"},"modified":"2026-08-12T17:16:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:16:47","slug":"the-probable-return-of-targeted-assassinations-against-the-leaders-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/en\/2026\/08\/12\/le-retour-probable-des-eliminations-ciblees-contre-les-dirigeants-de-la-republique-islamique-diran\/","title":{"rendered":"The likely return of targeted assassinations against the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 id=\"h-avril-2025-la-retenue-avant-la-tempete\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">April 2025: the restraint before the storm<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">By April 2025, Israel had already drawn up plans for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. Their implementation, however, required American logistical support. Donald Trump had then chosen to hold back his Israeli allies and to favour the opening of negotiations with Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">An investigation by <em>New York Times<\/em>, conducted by several journalists specialising in security issues, then revealed deep divisions within the US administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On one side, proponents of a hard line towards Iran; on the other, those who defended a new diplomatic attempt. The compromise eventually found was fragile, but it led Washington to rule out, for the time being, direct military action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">However, this decision did not mean that the other options had been abandoned. Following Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, Trump had sent CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Jerusalem. There, he had met the Israeli Prime Minister as well as David Barnea, then Director of the Mossad. The aim was to examine the various options available regarding Tehran, ranging from conventional military action to Israeli clandestine operations with potential American support, as well as the reinforcement of economic sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">At the time, a National Security Council spokesperson had summed up the US administration's position, reiterating that Iran could under no circumstances obtain a nuclear weapon, that all options remained open, and that the possibility of direct or indirect talks would not be unlimited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A few weeks later, Israel launched an attack of unprecedented scale in the heart of Tehran. The so-called \u00abtwelve-day war\u00bb, in June 2025, was to result in particular in the deaths of several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and scientists linked to the Iranian nuclear programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">With hindsight, the sequence of events therefore seems quite clear. A phase of diplomatic stalling, discreet coordination between the intelligence services, followed by action.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-un-scenario-qui-semble-se-repeter\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A scenario that seems to be repeating itself<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A year later, certain elements are strangely reminiscent of that sequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Following the ceasefire agreed in April 2026, fighting resumed in early July. Talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and on the future of Iran\u2019s nuclear programme have once again stalled. In early August, Tehran even went so far as to deny that it was engaged in direct talks with Washington, whilst US officials claimed that an agreement was close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It was in this context that the meeting took place in July between Roman Gofman, appointed head of the Mossad, and John Ratcliffe. According to Axios, this was Gofman's first trip to Washington since taking up his duties in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The meeting, which was also attended by several senior White House officials, was officially intended to coordinate the US and Israeli positions ahead of further talks on a nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">However, the context of this meeting is particularly important. Ratcliffe is among the American officials most sceptical about the memorandum of understanding concluded with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">He is particularly concerned that Tehran might interpret it differently from Washington, especially regarding the provisions concerning the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This meeting took place shortly before a fresh escalation around the strait and the resumption of large-scale fighting. The chronology is therefore reminiscent of that of 2025. Blocked negotiations, a discreet meeting between the heads of the American and Israeli intelligence services, followed by a new rise in tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In my view, this meeting needs to be taken seriously in light of the 2025 precedent. High-level contacts between the US and Israeli intelligence apparatuses have previously coincided with major security developments inside Iran itself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-une-impasse-militaire-qui-pourrait-pousser-vers-le-clandestin\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A military stalemate that could drive them underground<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Several recent developments also lend weight to the theory that the conflict is shifting towards more covert forms of action. Direct military confrontation is, in fact, becoming increasingly costly for both sides. It does not lead to a clear resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On the Jordanian front, an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeted the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which hosts US forces, on 18 July 2026. Two US service members were killed there. This brings the total number of US soldiers killed since hostilities resumed two weeks prior to sixteen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In Yemen, the Houthis, allies of Tehran, have simultaneously stepped up their attacks on Saudi Aramco\u2019s oil infrastructure. Since the end of July, the Jizan refineries and the Yanbu export terminal have been targeted in particular. Yanbu has taken on particular importance since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, becoming the main route for the export of Saudi oil. On 9 August, the Houthis once again claimed responsibility for an attack on the Jizan site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">These attacks on Saudi infrastructure demonstrate that Tehran retains the capacity to exert pressure beyond the Iranian theatre. They also reflect a shift in the balance of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, the United States and Israel are facing a difficulty: the conventional military option is costly and does not appear, on its own, to offer a way out of the impasse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That is why Washington and Jerusalem might be tempted to favour other instruments: political pressure, intelligence, clandestine operations and targeted actions. In this scenario, the elimination of key regime officials, accompanied by an attempt to exploit Iran's internal vulnerabilities, could regain a central place in American and Israeli strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Another element seems particularly important and remains relatively absent from analyses focused solely on the choice between war and negotiation: the presumed existence of a \u00abcoup d'\u00e9tat network\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Leader of the Revolution, who was assassinated whilst delivering his final public speeches, had himself alluded to the existence of this network. It has never been formally uncovered or neutralised within Iran\u2019s sensitive institutions. If it still exists, its presence would constitute a further source of vulnerability for the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This hypothesis deserves all the more attention given that Iran has already proved vulnerable to infiltration, sabotage and intelligence operations. In these circumstances, a strategy based on penetrating the regime\u2019s structures and eliminating high-profile targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">He could appear, to his opponents, as an alternative to an open confrontation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-une-meme-architecture-un-meme-denouement-possible\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The same architecture, the same potential outcome<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-4fc3f8e1 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The last two decades have shown just how vulnerable the Islamic Republic can be in the intelligence war and in what is known as the \u00abgrey zone\u00bb. Israel\u2019s campaigns of sabotage and assassinations against Iran are the most obvious illustration of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Even if the negotiations were ultimately to result in a compromise \u2014 allowing Iran, in particular, to retain some of its enrichment capacity in exchange for economic concessions \u2014 there is no guarantee that this shadow war would come to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">One of Tehran's persistent weaknesses lies precisely in the absence of a genuine deterrence doctrine in this grey zone. The regime has shown that it can respond militarily to certain attacks, but that it is less capable of preventing infiltrations, sabotage and targeted operations carried out inside its own territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This is what makes this form of confrontation particularly appealing to its opponents. It allows them to maintain considerable pressure whilst avoiding the political and military costs of an open war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It is this architecture that, in my opinion, is currently being reconstituted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">One year on from the sequence of events \u2013 \u00abdiplomatic detention \u2013 CIA-Mossad coordination \u2013 strike against Tehran\u00bb \u2013 which preceded the Twelve-Day War, several of the same factors are once again present: a deadlock in negotiations, a proxy war of attrition on the Jordanian, Saudi and Yemeni fronts, a military stalemate, persistent internal vulnerabilities and a discreet meeting between the heads of the American and Israeli intelligence services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If the 2025 precedent is anything to go by, the next phase of the conflict might not be fought primarily on conventional battlefields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It could take place behind the scenes: through intelligence, covert operations, sabotage and, once again, potentially through strikes targeting the most senior leaders of the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>April 2025: the restraint before the storm In April 2025, Israel had already prepared attack plans against nuclear sites\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":31739,"featured_media":4564,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[609,5,4,632],"tags":[729,105],"class_list":["post-4563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-defense","category-international","category-mis-en-avant","category-top-secret-local-13","tag-frappes-ciblees","tag-iran"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site 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