L’Inde avait annonc\u00e9, dans les semaines suivant l’attentat, la suspension de sa participation aux m\u00e9canismes de consultation pr\u00e9vus par le trait\u00e9. La raison : le soutien pr\u00e9sum\u00e9 de groupes bas\u00e9s au Pakistan aux auteurs de l’attaque. Cette d\u00e9cision, sans \u00e9quivalent dans l’histoire, a plong\u00e9 les deux pays dans une incertitude juridique et technique consid\u00e9rable. Le trait\u00e9 r\u00e9partit les eaux des six rivi\u00e8res du bassin de l’Indus. Les trois rivi\u00e8res orientales (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) sont attribu\u00e9es \u00e0 l’Inde, tandis que les trois occidentales (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) reviennent au Pakistan. Toutefois des droits d’usage limit\u00e9s accord\u00e9s \u00e0 New Delhi pour l’irrigation et la production hydro\u00e9lectrique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The issue of water is of existential importance to Pakistan. The Indus basin supplies over 90 % of the water used by Pakistani agriculture, a sector that employs nearly 40 % of the country's active workforce. Any significant reduction in flows originating from Indian-administered Kashmir would directly threaten Pakistani food security. This structural dependence leads Islamabad to view the treaty as an absolute red line, regardless of fluctuations in political relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 indien, la perception du trait\u00e9 a \u00e9volu\u00e9 au fil des d\u00e9cennies. Longtemps consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un mod\u00e8le de coop\u00e9ration pragmatique transcendant les antagonismes politiques, l’accord est d\u00e9sormais critiqu\u00e9. Une partie de l’establishment de New Delhi consid\u00e8re comme excessivement g\u00e9n\u00e9reux envers le Pakistan. Les nationalistes hindous estiment s’\u00eatres priv\u00e9s de ressources hydrauliques pr\u00e9cieuses pour pour leur propre d\u00e9veloppement, notamment dans les \u00c9tats arides du Rajasthan et de l’Haryana. L’id\u00e9e d’utiliser l’eau comme levier de pression sur Islamabad a gagn\u00e9 du terrain dans le d\u00e9bat public indien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This potential weaponisation of water resources is part of a broader regional context. Sino-Indian tensions in Ladakh, the competition for influence in South Asia, and New Delhi's perception of a Pakistan that is increasingly aligned with Beijing are fuelling a more assertive Indian vision. For Narendra Modi's government, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty represents a signal sent to Islamabad, but also to the entire region. India will no longer tolerate what it considers to be state-sponsored terrorist aggression by its neighbour without inflicting significant costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet, the use of water as a weapon carries considerable risks. Beyond the humanitarian implications of a water crisis in Pakistan, such a strategy could have unpredictable retaliatory effects. Pakistan possesses nuclear capabilities. It has historically demonstrated a willingness to resort to non-state actors when it feels cornered. A water war between two nuclear powers would represent a nightmare scenario for regional and global stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The suspension of the treaty raises the question of mechanisms likely to facilitate a resumption of dialogue between the two capitals. The World Bank, the original guarantor of the agreement, finds itself in a delicate position. Indeed, it has historically avoided taking sides in bilateral disputes, preferring to encourage the parties to resolve their differences through the procedures provided for by the treaty. These bodies are the Permanent Indus Commission, neutral experts, and a court of arbitration. However, these mechanisms presuppose a minimal willingness to cooperate, which India's suspension has precisely called into question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Several observers are raising the possibility of international mediation, potentially under the auspices of the United Nations or extra-regional powers. The United States and China are being mentioned. However, India has traditionally refused any internationalisation of disputes with Pakistan, considering that they fall exclusively within the scope of bilateral dialogue. This position, which has been strongly reaffirmed by New Delhi since the Pahalgam attack, considerably limits the options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China, a strategic partner of Islamabad but also keen to stabilise its Himalayan border with India, could play a facilitating role. However, Beijing has its own hydrological disputes with New Delhi concerning the Brahmaputra, which complicates any claim to neutrality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for the United States, their attention is largely absorbed by the Iranian conflict and tensions with China, leaving little diplomatic bandwidth for Indo-Pakistani mediation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One year after Pahalgam, the prospects for normalising Indo-Pakistani relations remain bleak. Both countries remain locked in a spiral of mistrust. Every gesture by the adversary is interpreted in the most unfavourable light possible. Pakistan denounces what it considers to be a policy of economic and water strangulation orchestrated by New Delhi. India accuses Islamabad of having taken no serious action against terrorist groups operating from its territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kashmir question, the primary source of the Indo-Pakistani conflict, remains as far from a resolution as ever. New Delhi's repeal in 2019 of Jammu and Kashmir's constitutional autonomy and its division into two Union territories was perceived in Pakistan as a unilateral annexation. For Islamabad, no genuine normalization is conceivable without a discussion on the final status of Kashmir. India categorically rejects this condition, considering the issue to be an internal matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L’avenir du bassin de l’Indus d\u00e9pendra in fine de la capacit\u00e9 des deux pays \u00e0 dissocier la gestion technique des ressources partag\u00e9es de leurs antagonismes politiques. L’histoire du trait\u00e9 d\u00e9montre que cette dissociation est possible, elle a fonctionn\u00e9 pendant six d\u00e9cennies. Mais l’\u00e9pisode actuel rappelle \u00e9galement que rien n’est acquis. L’eau, ressource vitale en voie de rar\u00e9faction sous l’effet du changement climatique, pourrait devenir le d\u00e9tonateur de conflits bien plus graves si les m\u00e9canismes de coop\u00e9ration ne sont pas restaur\u00e9s.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
India had announced, in the weeks following the attack, the suspension of its participation in the consultation mechanisms provided for by the treaty. The...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":31730,"featured_media":4483,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[615,609,5,4],"tags":[699,587],"class_list":["post-4482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asie-oceanie","category-defense","category-international","category-mis-en-avant","tag-inde","tag-pakistan"],"yoast_head":"\n