{"id":4428,"date":"2026-05-23T17:32:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T15:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/?p=4428"},"modified":"2026-05-23T17:52:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-23T15:52:05","slug":"iran-israel-united-states-anatomy-of-an-unfinished-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/en\/2026\/05\/23\/iran-israel-etats-unis-anatomie-dune-guerre-inachevee\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran-Israel-United States: Anatomy of an unfinished war"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 id=\"h-la-chronologie-d-un-basculement\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The timeline of a shift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation \u00abEpic Fury\u00bb, a joint air and naval campaign against Iran. The opening salvo eliminated the heart of the Iranian regime, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering in response a torrent of hundreds of Iranian missiles and thousands of drones across the Middle East. This operation caused thousands of deaths in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states, and displaced millions of people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Israeli-American strikes officially aimed to bring about regime change and destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme. They followed the failure of indirect negotiations in February 2026 on a nuclear deal. The Omani mediator had nevertheless reported \u00absignificant progress\u00bb and a willingness on Iran's part to make concessions, but Trump had stated that he was \u00abnot enthusiastic\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On 8 April, a conditional ceasefire brokered by Pakistan halted the fighting. On the same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded, formally signalling the end of the US military campaign. However, he set the \u00abcomplete, immediate and safe\u00bb reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a prerequisite.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-le-noeud-gordien-ormuz-et-le-nucleaire\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Gordian knot: Hormuz and nuclear power<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Two files are blocking any way out of the crisis, and how they are linked is the heart of the strategic problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-le-detroit-d-ormuz\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>The Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The strait, a vital passage for oil, fertilisers and other goods, has indeed been closed since 28 February. This situation is disrupting global energy supplies and driving up fuel prices. Washington is demanding its reopening immediately, while Tehran is holding it as a negotiating lever. Iran has described the US counter-blockade targeting ships seeking access to Iranian ports, in place since 13 April, as a \u00abpotential prelude to a ceasefire violation\u00bb.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Iranian proposal, transmitted via Pakistani mediators, consists of resolving the crisis in the strait and the US blockade as a priority. Tehran explicitly wishes to leave the nuclear issue to a later phase. The regime has indicated that there is no consensus within the Iranian leadership on how to respond to US demands on the nuclear file.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-le-nucleaire\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Nuclear power<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Washington a articul\u00e9 des exigences maximales. Le plan am\u00e9ricain soumis d\u00e9but mai exige un moratoire de 20 ans sur l&rsquo;enrichissement d&rsquo;uranium, le transfert \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9tranger du stock iranien d&rsquo;uranium hautement enrichi (estim\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 400 kg en richi \u00e0 60%). Mais aussi  le d\u00e9mant\u00e8lement des installations nucl\u00e9aires de Natanz, Isfahan et Fordow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On the Iranian side, the position is firm: at this stage, Tehran is not willing to negotiate its nuclear programme. First of all, the war must be ended on all fronts. Tehran is demanding direct guarantees from the UN Security Council against further strikes, and the lifting of sanctions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On the 11th and 12th of April, following 21 hours of negotiations that were initially indirect and then direct, the teams managed to reach agreement on most points of the ceasefire, with the precise exceptions of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme. The talks broke down without an agreement or a memorandum.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-le-nouveau-pouvoir-iranien-une-architecture-fracturee\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">The new Iranian power: a fractured architecture<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The elimination of Ali Khamenei did not produce the collapse of the regime expected by Washington. It brought about something more complex: a high-risk reshuffling of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On 9 March 2026, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the uncompromising son of the assassinated Supreme Leader, as the new Supreme Leader. This is a strong signal that Tehran does not intend to back down in the war.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Yet in the post-Ali Khamenei reality, power in Tehran has not recentred around a single, dominant leader. Power was formerly concentrated in the office of the Supreme Leader. It is now distributed within a tight circle of military, security and political figures with increasingly overlapping portfolios. What has emerged is a collective leadership architecture. Authority is exercised through institutions and networks reconfigured to meet the demands of war.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Historically, the Iranian system has demonstrated a considerable capacity to reproduce itself through intertwined institutional and security mechanisms. However, this capacity remains conditioned by the limits of external pressure and the degree of discipline maintained within the regime's inner circle. This is precisely what the coming weeks will test.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-la-geometrie-des-mediateurs\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The geometry of perpendicular bisectors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The crisis has brought to light a constellation of mediators whose presence reveals both the weakness of the international system and the ambitions of regional powers seeking to position themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Pakistan achieved the April ceasefire, a rare diplomatic feat for Islamabad, which is capitalising on its credibility with both Tehran and Washington. Saudi, Turkish and Egyptian intermediaries were also mobilised.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">France and Europe are trying to insert themselves into the process. Macron stated that the European surveillance mission could help to \u00abrestore the confidence of shipowners and insurers\u00bb and called on both sides to lift their blockades of the strait \u00abwithout delay and without conditions\u00bb. He affirmed that \u00abthe Europeans, upon whom the lifting of sanctions depends, will play their part\u00bb.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">China is playing a more discreet but structurally significant role. US officials have openly urged Beijing to use its influence over Tehran to reopen the strait. This request puts Xi Jinping in an uncomfortable position. Indeed, cooperating too much with Washington means validating American coercion. But resisting too much means running the risk of renewed economic confrontation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-la-zone-de-danger-mai-2026\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The danger zone: May 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The situation at the end of May 2026 is one of an unstable balance between formal ceasefire and creeping escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Pentagon has prepared target lists including Iranian energy and infrastructure facilities. The spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces has warned that any resumption of strikes would trigger \u00abmore intense counter-attacks\u00bb. Analysts have warned that a direct naval clash could trigger a rapid escalation within \u00ab48 to 72 hours\u00bb.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Trump stated that \u00abmost points had been accepted, but that the only point that really mattered, the nuclear one, had not been.\u00bb He described Iran as \u2019inflexible.\u00ab Iran said that an agreement was \u00bba few centimetres away\u00ab while condemning the \u00bbmaximalist demands\u00ab of the American negotiators.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Three scenarios now shape analysts' expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-le-premier-est-celui-d-un-accord-sequence-ormuz-d-abord-nucleaire-ensuite\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>The first is that of a sequenced Hormuz-first agreement<\/strong>, <strong>nuclear then<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It fits the Iranian logic that Washington seems to be tacitly accepting, at the cost of partially abandoning its initial objectives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-le-second-est-celui-d-une-reprise-des-frappes\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>The second is that of a resumption of strikes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Trump brandished it as a credible threat on 18th May, before suspending it under pressure from regional allies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-le-troisieme-peut-etre-le-plus-probable-a-court-terme-est-celui-d-un-gel-prolonge\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>The third, perhaps the most likely in the short term, is that of a prolonged freeze<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A ceasefire that holds without a substantive agreement, while both sides test each other's resilience. For global markets, the Strait of Hormuz remains a 34-kilometre-wide Sword of Damocles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-ce-que-cette-guerre-change-durablement\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What this war changes permanently<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-independamment-de-son-denouement-le-conflit-de-2026-a-deja-produit-plusieurs-effets-structurels-irreversibles\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Regardless of its outcome, the 2026 conflict has already produced several irreversible structural effects.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">He put an end to deterrence through nuclear ambiguity. Washington and Tel Aviv demonstrated that they were prepared to strike militarily a state on the threshold of nuclear capability. They thus challenged the logic that had prevailed until now, with North Korea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The conflict has reshuffled the deck in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A weakened Hezbollah, Iranian proxies in Iraq destabilised, but Tehran still standing: an ambiguous outcome for Israel. It has revealed the limits of UN mediation and the rising influence of alternative mediators\u2014Pakistan, Qatar, Oman\u2014in a Middle East where the US security order can no longer be taken for granted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">And he has opened, in the heart of Iran, a question of legitimacy and succession that will not be resolved solely by the designation of Mojtaba Khamenei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The war is officially over. But what comes after, the peace negotiation, could turn out to be even longer, more complex and more dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The chronology of a tipping point On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation \u00abEpic Fury\u00bb, an air and naval campaign\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":31730,"featured_media":4430,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4],"tags":[362,105,648],"class_list":["post-4428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","category-mis-en-avant","tag-etats-unis-2","tag-iran","tag-ormuz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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She has built a career at the intersection of the French, European and international scenes. Ghizlaine has collaborated with nearly twenty media outlets, including Le Point, Le Figaro, Les \u00c9chos, L'Express and Forbes. As Morocco\u2013Maghreb correspondent for Le Point and Africa correspondent for Forbes, she has distinguished herself through in-depth coverage of political and diplomatic dynamics between Europe and the African continent. To date, she is the only active Moroccan journalist to have collaborated with major mainstream French press titles outside the pan-African sphere in France. Within the economic daily L'\u00c9conomiste, Morocco's leading daily newspaper, she founded the France\u2013Morocco section, helping to shape an unprecedented editorial space. 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