{"id":2384,"date":"2024-03-20T18:31:39","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T17:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/?p=2384"},"modified":"2024-03-26T20:40:11","modified_gmt":"2024-03-26T19:40:11","slug":"le-senegal-retient-son-souffle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/en\/2024\/03\/20\/le-senegal-retient-son-souffle\/","title":{"rendered":"Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal retient son souffle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Erwan DAVOUX a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9 de mission \u00e0 la Pr\u00e9sidence de la R\u00e9publique et a conseill\u00e9 de nombreuses personnalit\u00e9s politiques de droite \u00e0 l’international.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle aura lieu dans 4 jours au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal. Le PDS (parti de l’ancien pr\u00e9sident Abdoulaye Wade et qui soutient d\u00e9sormais son fils Karim Wade) pourrait \u00eatre le faiseur de roi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle s\u00e9n\u00e9galaise aura lieu le dimanche 24 mars. Ainsi en a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 Le Conseil Constitutionnel. <\/strong>Elle se d\u00e9roulera donc sans deux t\u00e9nors Karim Wade (PDS) et Oumane Sonko, leader du Pastef dont les candidatures n’ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 valid\u00e9es par cette instance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’\u00e9quation est complexe. Les chances d’Amadou Ba, cens\u00e9 repr\u00e9senter le camp du pr\u00e9sident sortant, sont relativement faibles. Mais elles auraient nulles si l’\u00e9lection avait \u00e9t\u00e9 diff\u00e9r\u00e9e.<\/strong> Certains voient sa main derri\u00e8re toutes les d\u00e9cisions du Conseil Constitutionnel de ne pas reporter l’\u00e9lection. En effet, la pr\u00e9sence des deux t\u00e9nors emp\u00each\u00e9s l’aurait priv\u00e9 de tout espace. Amadou Ba a la r\u00e9putation d’\u00eatre un bon gestionnaire, il fut Ministres des Finances, des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res et Premier ministre. Il connait tous les rouages du fonctionnement de l’Etat et est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 \u00e0 l’\u00e9tranger. Mais ces forces indiscutables peuvent se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler \u00eatre aussi des faiblesses.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En effet, le peuple s\u00e9n\u00e9galais a envie d’une rupture<\/strong>. D’une sorte de deuxi\u00e8me ind\u00e9pendance consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme r\u00e9elle par opposition \u00e0 l’actuelle consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme formelle. Le d\u00e9bat sur le Franc CFA avec les allers-retours du Pastef sur le sujet en t\u00e9moigne. L’\u00e9tat d’esprit de la population est plut\u00f4t anti-fran\u00e7ais, comme dans les Etats du Sahel. La France porte une lourde responsabilit\u00e9 dans cette situation. <\/strong>Des relents de Fran\u00e7afrique incarn\u00e9s par certains chefs d’entreprises fran\u00e7ais locaux se comportant en potentat et semant la d\u00e9testation par leur n\u00e9ocolonialisme, \u00e0 l’absence de ligne diplomatique claire, la France n’a rien fait d’efficace pour enrayer ce qui pourrait \u00eatre des lendemains tr\u00e8s difficiles pour elle, au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal. Un s\u00e9isme car le pays a un poids d’importance dans la diplomatie fran\u00e7aise. La France, au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal comme ailleurs, a \u00e9t\u00e9 trop lente \u00e0 r\u00e9agir face \u00e0 cette situation qu’elle a manifestement sous-estim\u00e9e. Elle a aussi laiss\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 des \u00ab\u00a0fake news\u00a0\u00bb qui font maintenant partie du ressenti collectif.<\/strong> Une perte d’influence au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal signifierait simplement que la France sous les mandats de Fran\u00e7ois Hollande a \u00e9t\u00e9 chass\u00e9e d’Afrique<\/strong>. Ne resterait que la C\u00f4te d’Ivoire d’Alassane Ouattara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce contexte favorise indiscutablement Bassirou Diomaye Faye qui surfe sur cette vague populiste <\/strong>avec habilet\u00e9 et, d\u00e9sormais, le concours d’Ousmane Sonko, le v\u00e9ritable leader dont l’\u00e9largissement est r\u00e9cent. Leurs sympathies vont plus spontan\u00e9ment vers la Russie que vers la France.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans ce contexte, Amadou Ba se bat pour qu’il y ait un second tour et peut d\u00e9sormais compter sur l’appui du camp pr\u00e9sidentiel,<\/strong> de l’APR apr\u00e8s quelques p\u00e9riodes de tension. Mais cela risque de ne pas \u00eatre suffisant. Le choix fait par le PDS de le soutenir activement ou de soutenir Idrissa Seck <\/strong>(ancien Premier ministre qui fut un temps tr\u00e8s proche du pr\u00e9sident Abdoulaye Wade) ou, enfin, d’appeler \u00e0 l’abstention <\/strong>(on le voit mal prendre position pour le Pastef) aura toute son importance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette \u00e9lection est porteuse de danger<\/strong>s car le favori qui est incontestablement Bassirou Diomaye Faye est n\u00b02 d’un parti politique, sans exp\u00e9rience du pouvoir. Quel serait sa relation avec Ousmane Sonko s’il venait \u00e0 \u00eatre \u00e9lu ?<\/strong> La complicit\u00e9 entre les deux hommes r\u00e9sisterait-elle aux dures lois connues de la vie politique ? Quelle sera l’attitude de Karim Wade et du PDS ? N’y-at-il pas un risque de d\u00e9senchantement et de d\u00e9ception rapide apr\u00e8s les promesses de rupture ?<\/strong> D’autant que le bilan des deux mandats de Macky Sall est globalement positif <\/strong>m\u00eame si la population ne l’a pas forc\u00e9ment ressenti ainsi. Le Plan S\u00e9n\u00e9gal Emergent (PSE) a connu des retards mais il reste un objectif atteignable et r\u00e9aliste contrairement \u00e0 d’autres pays africains dans lesquels l’\u00e9mergence n’est qu’un slogan. Le Pr\u00e9sident Macky Sall, comme ses illustres pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseurs, aura port\u00e9 haut les couleurs de la diplomatie s\u00e9n\u00e9galaise sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le report de l’\u00e9lection de quelques semaines ou quelques mois aurait permis une \u00e9lection apais\u00e9e et incontestable avec tous les potagonistes. C’\u00e9tait l’option pr\u00e9conis\u00e9e par le Pr\u00e9sident Macky Sall mais elle s’est heurt\u00e9e aux calculs politiques des uns et des autres.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Erwan DAVOUX a \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9 de mission \u00e0 la Pr\u00e9sidence de la R\u00e9publique et a conseill\u00e9 de nombreuses personnalit\u00e9s politiques de droite…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":2385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[40,5],"tags":[211,213,227,191,228,192],"class_list":["post-2384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-election","category-international","tag-amadou-ba","tag-bassirou-diomaye-faye","tag-election-presidentielle","tag-macky-sall","tag-ousmane-sonko","tag-senegal"],"yoast_head":"\nLe S\u00e9n\u00e9gal retient son souffle | Geopolitics.fr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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