{"id":4811,"date":"2026-10-13T14:33:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T12:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/?p=4811"},"modified":"2026-10-13T14:33:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T12:33:35","slug":"mer-de-chine-meridionale-la-pression-permanente-sur-manille","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/ar\/2026\/10\/13\/mer-de-chine-meridionale-la-pression-permanente-sur-manille\/","title":{"rendered":"Mer de Chine m\u00e9ridionale, la pression permanente sur Manille"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 id=\"h-une-multiplication-d-incidents-sur-plusieurs-fronts\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Une multiplication d&rsquo;incidents sur plusieurs fronts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois d&rsquo;octobre, la mer de Chine m\u00e9ridionale conna\u00eet une accumulation d&rsquo;incidents qui d\u00e9passe le simple bruit de fond habituel. Selon USNI News, les forces chinoises et philippines se sont affront\u00e9es de mani\u00e8re dangereuse. Au moins six fois depuis le 1er octobre, \u00e0 Scarborough, \u00e0 Second Thomas et dans les Spratleys. Un nouveau foyer de tension est apparu dans le d\u00e9troit de Lu\u00e7on, pr\u00e8s des \u00eeles Batanes. Les \u00e9pisodes sont vari\u00e9s : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Le 3 octobre, un chasseur J-16 de l&rsquo;arm\u00e9e de l&rsquo;air chinoise s&rsquo;est approch\u00e9 d&rsquo;un petit avion philippin Cessna C-208 au-dessus de Scarborough<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"> A Loaita, des garde-c\u00f4tes philippins ont repouss\u00e9 un navire de milice maritime chinoise accompagn\u00e9 de 22 petits bateaux de p\u00eache<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cette vari\u00e9t\u00e9 montre que la pression chinoise ne se limite plus \u00e0 un seul point. Elle s&rsquo;exerce sur plusieurs fronts \u00e0 la fois. Dans les airs comme en mer, et touche d\u00e9sormais le nord de l&rsquo;archipel philippin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-second-thomas-shoal-un-recif-sous-tension\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second Thomas Shoal, un r\u00e9cif sous tension<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Le cas de Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin pour Manille, Ren&rsquo;ai pour P\u00e9kin) reste le plus embl\u00e9matique. En effet, cette semaine, des navires de guerre et des garde-c\u00f4tes chinois ont bloqu\u00e9 une mission de ravitaillement philippine vers le r\u00e9cif, ce que le m\u00e9dia d\u00e9crit comme l&rsquo;\u00e9volution la plus significative de la p\u00e9riode. Sur ce r\u00e9cif submerg\u00e9 repose le Sierra Madre, vieux navire que les Philippines ont volontairement \u00e9chou\u00e9 en 1999 pour y asseoir leur revendication. La Chine le consid\u00e8re comme ill\u00e9gal et en r\u00e9clame le retrait, th\u00e8se que Manille rejette. Apr\u00e8s la grave altercation de juin 2024, au cours de laquelle des garde-c\u00f4tes chinois avaient abord\u00e9 des embarcations philippines et confisqu\u00e9 des armes, les deux pays avaient conclu un arrangement provisoire. Il permettait \u00e0 Manille de ravitailler ses militaires. Cet arrangement a longtemps tenu.  Fin septembre, la presse rappelait que 15 missions de ravitaillement s&rsquo;\u00e9taient d\u00e9roul\u00e9es sans incident jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 d\u00e9but ao\u00fbt. Sa fragilit\u00e9 est d\u00e9sormais \u00e9vidente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-un-accord-provisoire-deux-interpretations\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un accord provisoire, deux interpr\u00e9tations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">La querelle porte pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment sur ce que l&rsquo;accord autorise. Pour Manille, la zone est incluse dans sa zone \u00e9conomique exclusive, aucune permission chinoise n&rsquo;est requise, et l&rsquo;arrangement. P\u00e9kin parle de provocations, accuse les Philippines de renier leurs engagements et ignorer ses avertissements. Les deux capitales se renvoient la responsabilit\u00e9 des incidents. Apr\u00e8s un accrochage en juillet entre un navire des garde-c\u00f4tes chinois et deux canots pneumatiques de la marine philippine, la Chine a d\u00e9pos\u00e9 une protestation officielle. Accusant Manille d&rsquo;avoir attaqu\u00e9 ses garde-c\u00f4tes. Le 20 juillet, les \u00c9tats-Unis ont condamn\u00e9 les actions \u00ab dangereuses et agressives \u00bb de P\u00e9kin contre des marins philippins. Ils ont rappel\u00e9 leur soutien \u00e0 leur alli\u00e9. Les Etats-Unis ont r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 que la d\u00e9cision arbitrale de 2016, jugeant les revendications chinoises infond\u00e9es en droit international, est d\u00e9finitive et contraignante. La Chine ne reconna\u00eet pas cette d\u00e9cision, ce qui prive le dossier de tout cadre juridique commun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-la-zone-grise-test-pour-l-alliance-americano-philippine\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">La zone grise, test pour l&rsquo;alliance am\u00e9ricano-philippine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Derri\u00e8re ces accrochages, c&rsquo;est la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;alliance am\u00e9ricano-philippine qui se joue. Washington a d\u00e9j\u00e0 indiqu\u00e9 que toute attaque arm\u00e9e contre des navires publics philippins en mer de Chine m\u00e9ridionale d\u00e9clencherait les obligations du trait\u00e9 de d\u00e9fense mutuelle. P\u00e9kin, de son c\u00f4t\u00e9, agit sous le seuil du conflit. Ses garde-c\u00f4tes ont annonc\u00e9 des exercices portant sur l&rsquo;abordage, l&rsquo;inspection, l&rsquo;interdiction d&rsquo;intrusion et le remorquage forc\u00e9. C&rsquo;est la logique de la \u00ab zone grise \u00bb : harceler, bloquer et intimider sans tirer, de fa\u00e7on \u00e0 modifier la situation sur le terrain sans d\u00e9clencher de riposte arm\u00e9e. Le risque tient \u00e0 l&rsquo;usure et \u00e0 l&rsquo;erreur. A force de fr\u00f4ler la ligne rouge, un accident, un bless\u00e9 grave ou un mort pourrait obliger chacun \u00e0 r\u00e9agir plus durement qu&rsquo;il ne le souhaite. Pour toute l&rsquo;Asie du Sud-Est, et pour les pays qui d\u00e9pendent de ces routes maritimes, l&rsquo;issue de ce bras de fer dira si la coercition peut \u00eatre contenue sans guerre, et si les garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines demeurent cr\u00e9dibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une multiplication d&rsquo;incidents sur plusieurs fronts Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois d&rsquo;octobre, la mer de Chine m\u00e9ridionale conna\u00eet une accumulation d&rsquo;incidents qui&hellip;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":31730,"featured_media":4812,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[615,5,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asie-oceanie","category-international","category-mis-en-avant"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mer de Chine m\u00e9ridionale, la pression permanente sur Manille | Geopolitics.fr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.geopolitics.fr\/ar\/2026\/10\/13\/mer-de-chine-meridionale-la-pression-permanente-sur-manille\/\" \/>\n<meta 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